The repeated and growing occurrence of a series of unprecedented floods, droughts, wildfires, typhoons/hurricanes/cyclones, etc. in one or other parts of the world is attributed to the human-induced phenomenon of global warming and of climate change. Such events are accompanied by massive destruction, loss of lives, inflicting misery on the affected people. Some reputed global agencies and leading climate scientists have been tracking the emerging climate change scenario on a continuous basis. In this regard, three recent publications – a scientific paper by leading climate scientists, and two reports by well-known agencies [International Energy Agency (IEA) and United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)] - throw light on the current and futuristic state-of-affairs in the climate change arena. We feel it is appropriate to bring such trends to the notice of our readers.

Let us first consider the ongoing mitigation efforts being carried out globally on tapping the renewable energy. It is well known that the burning of fossil fuel releases greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, etc. in the atmosphere. Steep rise in these human-induced emissions are the primary drivers for global warming and climate change. Therefore, the need to steeply increase the renewable energy potential globally is an urgent necessity so that such a strategy goes a long way in reducing the dependence on fossil fuels.

In this context, the recent report by the IEA “Renewables 2024: Analysis and Forecast” which reviews the global scenario on renewables, provides some encouraging news [1]. The brief highlights of this report are included under “Decarbonization - operational carbon“ on the LCCF website. The IEA analysis shows that the world’s renewable power capacity is expected to add more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity between 2024 and 2030, thus reaching closer to meet almost half of global electricity demand using renewables by the end of this decade.

During COP 28 held in Dubai when the first ‘global stocktake’ of the world’s efforts to address climate change under the Paris Agreement was taken, an appeal was made to all parties to triple their renewable energy capacity by the end of this decade. The IEA forecast of global renewable capacity reaching 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030 is falling short of the tripling of the renewable target. However, with economics favouring the renewables, the IEA report appeals to different countries to accelerate the rollout of renewable power. The report also suggests speeding up the adoption of sustainable biofuels, biogases, hydrogen and e-fuels.

While the projected global rise in renewables by 2030 would certainly be a noteworthy achievement, it would be falling too short to mitigate the ever-escalating advance of climate change. A recent paper by leading climate scientists, who have been tracking climate change phenomenon have stated that the world is on the ‘brink of an irreversible climate disaster” – a “climate emergency beyond doubt!” [2]. The scientists state that the global failure to rapidly phasedown the use of fossil fuels has resulted in escalating climate-related impacts. What is indeed shocking in their report is their prediction that the 35 Vital Planetary signs that are being tracked annually, 25 are at record levels!! Is it the apathy of the world community in neglecting the repeated warnings from climate scientists and IPCC that has landed us on the threshold of irreversible climate disasters?

The paper points out that humanity’s collective size and consumption patterns continued to accelerate on multiple fronts, such as:

• Continual increase in fossil fuel consumption (2023 witnessed 1.5% increase in consumption over the 2022 data)
• Alarming increase in the growth rate of methane and nitrous oxide
• Record increase in human population and ruminant livestock of approximately 200,000 and 170,000 per day, respectively (how much the mother earth can sustain?)
• Ocean acidity and ocean heat content are at record extremes
• Increasing loss of global tree cover

All these have had extremely adverse effects on the global temperature rise. A 2024 opinion poll of prominent climate scientists of the IPCC, senior authors, and review editors quoted by the author reveals that 80% of these scientists anticipate global temperatures increasing by at least 2.5°C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century! These projections warn us of the perilous times ahead.

A recent report by the UNEP throws more light on the topic [3]. The title of the report “Broken Record: Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)” itself conveys the sorry state of the current affairs in the climate change scenario. The report observes that the world is heading for a temperature rise far above the Paris Agreement goals. It highlights that temperature records not only continue to be broken but the global GHG emissions are also setting new records - as against the 1990 GHG emissions of 37.9 GtCO_2e the emissions escalated to 57.4 GtCO_2e in 2022!

Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43922

The UNEP report indicates that despite the proposed planned increase in the renewables, the insatiable energy demand to satisfy the needs of world population, there are plans to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. The report further points out that “in the most optimistic scenario where all conditional NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) and net-zero pledges, including those made as part of long-term low-emissions development strategies, are assumed to be fully achieved, global warming is projected to be limited to 2°C (range: 1.8–2.5°C) with 66 per cent chance over the course of the century…. the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is only 14 %”.

The UNEP report therefore advocates immediate stringent emission reduction strategy to bridge the current massive emission gap of around 22 GtCO_2e for achieving the 1.5°C goal. The report warns that removal of gigaton levels of GHG emissions later in this century is fraught with uncertainty and would be associated with several risks.

We would like to close this discussion by quoting a part of the conclusions from the paper by the climate scientists.

“In a world with finite resources, unlimited growth is a perilous illusion. We need bold, transformative change: drastically reducing overconsumption and waste, especially by the affluent, stabilizing and gradually reducing the human population through empowering education and rights for girls and women, reforming food production systems to support more plant-based eating, and adopting an ecological and post-growth economics framework that ensures social justice…. We also need more immediate efforts to protect, restore, or rewild ecosystems.”

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